Trading Systems

A trading system consists of a set of rules for viewing markets and making trades. The advantages of trading systems can be hidden when they become associated with trading platforms involving trade order submission and processing. A clarification of their roles can help explain the benefits of using a trading system. This can be done without identifying a particular platform or system. Once the platform infrastructure is isolated, a brief look can be taken at why a trader can benefit from a trading system.

An online trading platform consists of the infrastructure for viewing market prices and making trades. While platforms make use of user provided hardware and the internet itself, platforms consist of software linked to a database while displaying price quotes, enabling order entry and routing orders to an exchange. A platform of software and order routing services is provided by many brokers. It often includes programmable charting software that allows a user to select from an array of formats for price, volume and technical indicators. Links to real time databases are used by day traders while free delayed quotes are quite adequate for position traders who analyze data after the markets close to minimize the emotional stress of changing prices. Platform software saves time and reduces errors by automating repetitive tasks.

Some platform tools have become quite sophisticated, allowing a user to add his personal rules for making trades. Rules tell the software which set of indicators and prices to monitor and the levels at which traded instruments are to be bought and sold. Automated systems trading software are preprogrammed with trading rules enabling them to make trades with minimal user input. These software modules, designed by third party vendors to operate under existing platforms, are based on algorithms that identify price trends and market turning points. Since their accuracy is limited by the presumed market volatility, an algorithm is needed to recognize when market volatility falls outside the envelope for which the software rules were designed. The quality of a set of rules can be estimated from historical back testing on past market prices stored in a database. It is often pointed out that back testing lacks the realism of real time emotional stress and that past performance is not an indicator of future performance. While the latter is valid in all cases, the nature of trading system rules reduces emotional stress to the degree that the rules are consistently followed.

In any case, it is the rules themselves that comprise the trading system. In their purest form, trading systems take the form of a compact set of rules written on paper.

The ability to consistently make error free decisions amid changing prices in an environment of fear and greed is unlikely without the discipline that rules provide. It does little good to have all the price monitoring, charting, order submission and routing infrastructure if one does not have a consistent set of rules for making trades. Most of us find this out the hard way, judging from the statistic that only about 12% of stock traders are successful. For futures traders the number is closer to 5%. It is not just a coincidence that the percentage of traders that rely on a proven trading system is near these same levels. The consistent use of a proven trading system can be most beneficial to traders with all levels of experience.

Seeing the difference between trading systems and platform infrastructure makes the characteristics of a good trading system more obvious. A good trading system explains when trading should not be attempted, thereby, avoiding forced trading under inopportune conditions. It should specify how to independently generate a strong watch list of candidate trades to eliminate the need to chase after the latest hot tip from an advisor. For obvious reasons, a trading system should be easy to use, totally objective, take little of a trader's time and make consistent profits. It should also avoid large draw downs and give clear trading signals.

A trading system is best learned from a master trader who remains actively engaged in teaching. The master can help the student tailor the system to his personality, financial means, risk tolerance and skill level. The next best approach is to simply read what has been written and adopt it to one's personal situation. But under no circumstances should one try to wing it without the support of a set of trading rules. The advantage of rule based trading systems lies in their objectivity and consistency. When followed consistently, emotional trading and its associated errors are removed from the equation. As an investment, trading systems more than pay for themselves, not only in profits gained, but also in the amount of capital preserved. This is true not only for advanced automated trading systems but also for a compact set of rules on paper.

By James Andrews

Selecting Rules for Investing and Trading

There are three important differences between investing and trading. Overlooking them can lead to confusion. A beginning trader, for example, may use the terms interchangeably and misapply their rules with mixed and unrepeatable results. Investing and trading become more effective when their differences are clearly recognized. An investor's goal is to take long term ownership of an instrument with a high level of confidence that it will continually increase in value. A trader buys and sells to capitalize on short term relative changes in value with a somewhat lower level of confidence. Goals, time frame and levels of confidence can be used to outline two completely different sets of rules. This will not be an exhaustive discussion of those rules but is intended to highlight some important practical implications of their differences. Long term investing is discussed first followed by short term trading.

My mentor, Dr. Stephen Cooper, defines long term investing as buying and holding an instrument for 5 years or more. The reason for this seemingly narrow definition is that when one invests long term, the idea is to "buy and hold" or "buy and forget". In order to do this, it is necessary to take the emotions of greed and fear out of the equation. Mutual funds are favored because of they are professionally managed and they naturally diversify your investment over dozens or even hundreds of stocks. This does not mean just any mutual fund and it does not mean that one has to stay with the same mutual fund for the entire time. But it does imply that one stays within the investment class.

First, the fund in question should have at least a 5 or 10 year track record of proven annual gains. You should feel confident that the investment is reasonably safe. You are not continually watching the markets to take advantage of or to avoid short term ups and downs. You have a plan.

Second, performance of the instrument in question should be measured in terms of a well defined benchmark. One such benchmark is the S&P 500 Index that is an average of the performance of 500 of the largest and best performing stocks in the US markets. Looking back as far as the 1930's, over any 5 year period the S&P 500 Index has gained in price about 96% of the time. This is quite remarkable. If one widens the window to 10 years, he finds that over any 10 year period the Index has gained in price 100% of the time. The S&P500 Index has gained an average of 10.9% a year for the past 10 years. So the S&P500 Index is the benchmark.

If one just invests in the S&P500 index, he can expect to earn, on average, about 10.9% a year. There are many ways to enter this kind of investment. One way is to buy the trading symbol SPY, which is an Exchange Traded Fund that tracks the S&P500 and trades just like a stock. Or, one can buy a mutual fund that tracks the S&P500, such as the Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund with a trading symbol VFINX. There are others, as well. Yahoo.com has a mutual fund screener that lists scores of mutual funds having annualized returns in excess of 20% over the past 5 years. However, one should try to find a screener that gives performance for the past 10 years or more, if possible. To put this into perspective, 90% of the 10,000 or so mutual funds that exist do not perform as well as the S&P500 each year.

The fact that 10.9% is average market performance for the past 10 years is all the more remarkable when one considers that the average bank deposit yield is less than 2%, 10 year Treasury yields are about 4.2% and 30 year Treasury yields are only 4.8%. Corporate bond yields approximate those of the S&P500. There is a reason for this disparity, though. Treasuries are considered the safest of all paper investments, being backed by the United States Government. FDIC regulated savings accounts are probably the next safest while stocks and corporate bonds are considered a bit more risky. Savings accounts are possibly the most liquid, followed by stocks and bonds.

To help you calibrate the safety and liquidity question, the long bond holders are comparing bond yields they now receive with next year's anticipated stock yields. Consider that next year's anticipated S&P500 yield is around 4.7% based on the reciprocal of its average price to earnings ratio (P/E) of 21.2. Yet the 10 year annualized return of the index has been 10.9%. Bond holders are prepared to accept half the historical yield of stocks for added safety and stability. In any given year, stocks may go either up or down. Bond yields are not expected to fluctuate widely from one year to the next, although they have been know to do so. It is as if bond holders want to be free to invest short term, as well as, long term. Many bond holders are thereby traders and not investors and accept a lower yield for this flexibility. But if one has decided once and for all that an investment is for the long term, high yield stock mutual funds or the S&P500 Index, itself, seem the best way to go. Using the simple compound interest formula, $10,000 invested in the S&P500 index at 10.9% a year becomes $132,827.70 after25 years. At 21%, the amount after 25 years is more than $1 million. If in addition to averaging 21%, one adds just $100 a month, the total amount after 25 years exceeds $1.8 million. Dr. C. rightly believes that 90% of one's capital should be allocated over a several such investments.

Now that you've allocated 90% of your funds to long term investing, that leaves you about 10% for trading. Short to intermediate term trading is an area that most of us are more familiar with, probably due to its popularity. Yet it is significantly more complex and only about 12% of traders are successful. The time frame for trading is less than 5 years and is more typically from a couple of minutes to a couple of years. The typical probability of being right on the direction of a trade approaches an average high of about 70% when an appropriate trading system is used to less than about 30% without a trading system.

Even at the low end of the spectrum, you can avoid getting wiped out by managing the size of your trades to less than about 4% of your trading portfolio and limiting each loss to no more than 25% of any given trade while letting your winners run until they decrease by no more than 25% from their peak. These percentages can be increased after there is evidence that the probability of choosing the correct direction of a trade has improved.

Intermediate term trading is based more on fundamental analysis which attempts to assign a value to a company's stock based on its history of earnings, assets, cash flow, sales and any number of objective measures in relation to its current stock price. It may also include projections of future earnings based on news of business agreements and changing market conditions. Some refer to this as value investing. In any case, the objective is to buy a company's stock at bargain prices and wait for the market to realize its value and bid up the price before selling. When the stock is fairly priced, the instrument is sold unless one sees continuing growth in the value of the stock, in which case he moves it over into the investment category.

Since trading depends on the changing perceived value of a stock, your trading time frame should be chosen based on how well you are able detach yourself from the emotions of greed and fear. The better one can remove emotions from trading, the shorter the time frame he can successfully trade. On the other hand, when you feel surges of emotion before, during or immediately after a trade, it's time to step back and consider choosing your trades more carefully and trading less frequently. One's ability to remove emotions from trading takes a great deal of practice.

This is not just a moral statement. An entire universe of what's called technical analysis is based on the aggregate emotional behavior of traders and forms the basis of short term trading. Technical analysis is a study of price and volume patterns of a stock over time. Pure technicians, as they are called, claim that all pertinent news and valuations are imbedded into a stock's technical behavior. A long list of technical indicators has evolved to describe the emotional behavior of the stock market. Most technical indicators are based on moving averages over a predefined time period. Indicator time periods should be adjusted to fit the trading time frame. The subject is far too large to do it justice in less than several volumes of print. The lower level of confidence involved in trading is the reason for the large number of indicators used.

While long term investors may use only a single long term moving average with confidence to track steadily increasing value, traders use multiple indicators to deal with shorter time frames of oscillating value and higher risk. To improve your results and make them more repeatable, consider your expectations of changing value, your time frame and your level of confidence in predicting the outcome. Then you will know which set of rules to apply.

By James Andrews

Maniac Investment

Let's first understand what maniac means. According to Webster a maniac is "mad; raging with madness; raging with disordered intellect". You don't know anyone like that, do you?

There is a book that is still in print today that was originally published in 1841 with the title Extraordinary and Popular Delusions of Crowds by Charles Mackay. He explains in rather horrific detail how people were caught up in the madness of buying property in the South Seas in 1720, the numismatic coin craze of 1980 and the tulip bulb trading in 1637. You wonder how people could have been so gullible to have bought a single tulip bulb or land they would never see for huge amounts of money. Could anything like this ever happen again?

I was floor trader on the commodity exchange in 1973 when the Hunt brothers drove silver from $2.00 per ounce to $54. That mania lasted a few months and quickly tanked to $6.00. I took part in that mania. I was one of the maniacs.

When it was taking place it seemed like the thing to do and very few questioned the sanity of those participating. In fact, if you weren't part of the crowd there was something wrong with you. When there is a stampede it is best to run with the herd or be trampled to death. However, there were a few who were not mesmerized.

Today we are participating in one of those manias only now it is called a bubble and still is not being taken too seriously. Yes, it is the stock market mania. Many are still trapped in the madness of the crowd of the 1990's who believe the "market always comes back". They are clutching their tulip bulbs, sorry, stock certificates, and refuse to let go of them because they know their value will grow back to what it was 3 years ago. Stock owners have become mad with what - greed? fear? denial?

When something, almost anything, drops 50% in price it will take a 100% increase in value to get back to "even". With today's economic and world conditions that could be a long time and maybe not in our lifetime.

Years ago I heard a story about how they used to catch monkeys. A small hole just big enough for the monkey to slip his empty hand inside would be drilled in a coconut and candy and fruit would be put in it. The coconut was tied to a stake in the ground. When the monkey grabbed a fistful of goodies he would not let go even when the hunter came for him. Greed holds him in an invisible grip.

Many investors today are like those monkeys. They refuse to sell what is remaining of the stocks and mutual funds they own even though they can clearly see the major trend continues down. They became mad with greed and now fear of loss entraps them.

Until this madness is recognized investors will continue to see their portfolios become smaller and smaller. They must learn to let go.

Written 3/10/03 but still applies today.

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By Albert W. Thomas

Copy Cat or How to Use a Successful Trading System

How many books have you read about successful traders? How they did this or that and made a fortune and are still doing it. You say to yourself, "I'm going to follow his method and get rich".

So you subscribe to his newsletter (they all have one, $250) and buy his course on CD Rom ($495)and next time he is anywhere near you attend his seminar with a $500 discount for only $2495. You do understand you must do exactly as he does and you try your best to follow the directions, but for some reason you still are not making money. At least you are not losing as much as you did before (I hope).

Go look in the mirror. You are not Richard Russell, Richard Wyckoff, Bill O'Neil or any one of the great gurus of the market place. Each one of them has devoted every minute of his life to understanding the market. Each one is very successful and each one has a completely different way of approaching trading. Can you copy any one of them? It is very doubtful.

These great teachers can help you, but you have to develop your own method and style of investment. Whether it is long term or short term it must be something with which you resonate. When I was a floor trader there were a thousand guys trading and I know there were a thousand different guide lines. No one had the same buy or sell signal. If they all followed a pat program they would all be buying and selling at the same time so it could not work.

I have stood in the pit and watched the same person offer to buy and when there was no seller he would then offer to sell usually at the same price. Yes, he was scalping for one or 2 ticks, but he knew what he was doing even if it looked strange. A friend of mine could arbitrage by standing in the middle of the gold pit and hit buys and sells that were off by one or two ticks because they could not hear each other due to the noise of other traders who were shouting their offers.

You can look at the basic trading style of one of the "greats", but you must adapt it to your method. I have not seen anyone able to successfully copy a trading program exactly. You will improvise and find a slightly new approach that becomes "yours". It then becomes part of your cellular being. It works for you and probably won't work for anyone else.

If the programs the hype masters are selling work so well why aren't there more rich traders? And if the programs are so darn good why are they telling you?

To be a successful trader you can't copy cat an existing program, but you can take a basic trading vehicle and modify it your own plan. Turn that cat into your own tiger.

By Al Thomas

A Secret Revealed: Why Most (Day) Traders Fail

The following perspective on (day) trading comes from my many years of experience of active day trading or being the moderator of one of the largest day trading chat rooms on the Internet.

One of the biggest problems I see with new traders (and even some old ones) has nothing to do with the software or the broker they are using. Nor is the problem a result of buying too high or selling to low; or not having enough money. The problem isn't any of those things.

It has to do with not having a trading plan. A good trading plan will go a long way towards solving the problems mentioned above.

Ted Williams was once asked how he hit the baseball so much better then everyone else. He said he had no idea and that he just went up to the plate and swung at the ball. There has only been one Ted Williams and as great as he was at hitting a baseball, I don't think he would have made a great day trader with that approach. Most great hitters have an idea what they are going to do every time they step up to the plate. Traders need to know exactly what they expect every time they enter a trade.

Everyone should start out with a basic trading plan and use it. As the old saying goes, "Plan your work and work your plan". However, you also have to be ready to be flexible. That has to be part of your planning. As Clint Eastwood said as his character in "Heartbreak Ridge", "You got to adjust, you got to learn to improvise. And if all else fails, you to learn to survive!" Traders that are not able to make adjustments, improvise and survive will experience their own Heartbreak Ridge.

Your trading plan can't be one where you simply figure you are just going to follow someone else. That may be one way to get a start and a bit of experience, and it can be a part of a much bigger overall plan. But it cannot start and end there. You have to learn to trade on your own so you don't accidentally follow someone off a cliff. You have to know who to follow and who not to follow.

When I was trading I made a lot of good trades knowing who to follow and who not to follow. Yet, in the long run, I do not believe you can make a living doing that. The biggest problem in following other traders is being too far behind the trade because you are "following" and not leading. I think each and every trader has to become the very best trader he can possibly be, on his own. He needs to get there as fast as he can. Following more experienced traders can be a means to this end and can help get you started, but it cannot be the end. This takes planning.

A basic trading plan will take in your long-term goals and objectives as a trader. You'll have to decide if you want to try to make a career out of trading, or just be a part time trader. Once you have decided this you can make other decisions such as how much money you would like to make at either full time or part time trading. Your money goals have to be realistic. They can't just be, "I want to make as much money as I can". These basic decisions will determine the time and money you will have to commit.

Your trading plan should be on going, constantly evolving and eventually contain things like how many days, weeks, and hours you will need to trade to meet your goals. If it is as detailed as I think it should be, you would know how many trades per day and how much profit per trade you will have to average. Of course, these things will have to be developed over time and added to your plan as you go and as you gain more knowledge.

There are many excellent books on learning to day trade. My favorites are found at http://www.TraderAide.com/books

No permission is needed to reproduce an unedited copy of this article as long the About The Author tag is left in tact and included. We do request that we be informed of where it is posted and reciprocal links will be considered. Email floyd@sbmag.org.

By Floyd Snyder

The Perfect Mutual Fund

The Perfect Mutual Fund is the one you build yourself!

The perfect Mutual Fund you build should have the objective of owning no more than 12 to 15 companies; owning shares in 12 companies would allow the diversity needed to sleep well at night and would provide a cash dividend every week of the year.

The 12 companies (with staggered dividend payout dates) in your perfect Mutual Fund should not only provide a cash dividend every week of the year, the companies should also have a historical record of raising their dividends every year for at least the past 8 years (to eliminate risk).

The perfect Mutual Fund would have no fees attached, every cent put into the Fund would work toward your return on investment (ROI).

There would not be any commission fees, load fees, management fees or advertising fees, and there would be no illegal trading practices, hidden fees abuses or any type of hidden fee. The perfect Mutual Fund would benefit you and your family and no one else.

The perfect Mutual Fund would require a savings plan to add to your holdings every quarter, until retirement. This would allow your perfect Mutual Fund to dollar-cost average (buying the same stock at different prices through the years) into your holdings every quarter (your dividends from the companies would be doing this for you, automatically, commission free; your quarterly investments would also be commission free).

With this in mind, every dividend received from a company in the Fund would be higher than the previous dividend from that company (as long as the company, at least, maintains their dividend and in the perfect Mutual Fund every company has a history of raising their dividend every year).

In the perfect Mutual Fund, when prices of your stock holdings in the Fund decline, the cash dividend income from the Fund simply accelerates. The reason for this is simple - the lower the stock prices the higher the dividend yields. A company, for example, may pay a dividend of 50 cents a share. Whether that company's share price is 70 dollars a share or 40 dollars a share, the company pays 50 cents a share. At a lower stock price your reinvested dividend and quarterly investment purchases more shares.

In the perfect Mutual Fund your money is not spread too thin. For example, putting $5,000.00 into, lets say, the S&P 500 Index Fund, you would end up owning around $10.00 worth of 500 different companies. Other than the obvious fact that your money is being spread too thin, any dividends from the companies in the Fund could possibly be eaten up by management and other Mutual Fund fees.

The perfect Mutual Fund is real and you can build one for yourself!

For more excerpts from the book 'The Stockopoly Plan - Investing for Retirement' visit http://www.thestockopolyplan.com

By Charles M. O'Melia

Building The Foundation For Wealth

You wouldn't build your home on anything less than a solid foundation. Similarly, you can't build wealth and financial independence without first having sound foundational principles to build upon.

I have found that many people are working on wealth building strategies such as maximizing their 401K returns, aggressive stock trading, and real estate investing without such a foundation.

Most of my clients are coming from a "one step forward, two steps back" cycle of wealth building that gets them nowhere in the long run.

There are steps you can take to make sure that you are maximizing and protecting your gains at the same time. Without these steps, you are destined to experience the gain-loss cycle which, in the end, is like spinning your wheels in the mud.

Discover how your employment circumstances affect your wealth building strategy and have more of the things you want by identifying your biggest expense and managing it without having to make more money.

Most people take gains in their cash flow to mean they can spend more on things they don't need. It is human to want to surround yourself with the things you want to match how you feel about your new income from investments or a raise at work.

But what happens here is that you lose future earning power and you rip out pieces of your wealth building foundation because you are not putting new income to work by investing in your debt.

People talk a lot about returns on investments. Think of the return on a 13% credit debt that you pay off in 5 months aggressive debt investment. It's NOT just 13% you are saving by investing in your debt!

Once that debt is paid off you can turn the payments you were making toward a larger debt, sometimes doubling the rate at which you are able to pay off that bigger debt. Combined, the return on your investment here is massive compared to regular stock investing!

Wealth building, in the beginning, is actually started with debt reduction and strict management. A change in attitude about your debt, from "liability" to investment, is the first step in true wealth building.

Today you should sit down and find the monthly expenses that truly don't mean as much to you as building wealth does. See how you can eliminate some of your spending to invest in your debt in order to maximize your cash flow faster, giving yourself a raise!

Take most of what you now have available per month and turn it toward the next debt - raising the regular monthly payment by as much as you can while rewarding yourself with a little thing to note your accomplishment.

Before you take on another investment, think about the wealth you can build with the money that currently goes to debt. Once you have mastered your debt, all that money can go toward investments, savings, and living expenses that far outstretch what you are able to experience now.

The only aggressive investment strategy that has absolutely zero risk is debt investment. You cannot lose and the gains are always tremendous compared to any other form of investing.

Live your retirement years free of financial stress, relaxed and enjoying life due to automatic income streams you create through the powerful investments you can afford AFTER investing in your debt.

By C.C. Collins